Housing markets across Canada are defying December norms

Canada’s housing market had a busy fall. Some regions saw extraordinary activity in December. This sparks optimism for 2025. 

Several federal policy decisions are boosting optimism. Many say they will lift the market in 2025. 

These include the Bank of Canada’s ongoing interest rate cuts. The federal government has enacted the boldest mortgage reforms in decades. They aim to help people buy homes.

How solid and healthy is the market?

November by the numbers

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported recent data. It showed that MLS sales in Canada rose 26% to 37,855 in November compared to a year ago. Montreal led with a 47% increase. The Greater Toronto Area saw a 38.6% rise, and the Greater Vancouver Area saw a 28.6% increase.

Marc Lefrancois, broker/co-owner of Équipe Lefrancois in Montreal, said the market is rebounding after 18 tough months. After the pandemic, sales volume experienced a significant decline. Recovery began last January. But September and October began to see the recovery in full swing.

“Instead of a typical quiet November and December, we’re busy now,” he said. “Montreal’s lower prices than Toronto and Vancouver attract more buyers. They’re returning to buy homes and create their properties.”

“Right now, we’re busy as crazy. I’m a little scared and worried because my holiday season is going to be crap. But we’re overwhelmed with tasks at the moment.”

Supply vs. demand

Lefrancois explained that, yes, many buyers are coming to the market. But there are also sellers. He added he’s done a record number of home valuations for December.  People are buying now because they believe prices are going to go up and they will have to pay more next year. Sellers are coming onto the market not to miss out on the demand. 

And while there are sellers, there aren’t enough.  “Prices are starting to go up again. The problem is that supply isn’t there,” he added.

Busiest December in a decade… for some.

“The only year I can compare (November and December this year) is 2011. For a while, U.S. banks were in danger. Everyone stressed about a possible collapse of the U.S. banking system. In Montreal, people worried about what was going to happen, causing volumes to go down to zero. When they realized the banks weren’t going to collapse, we became overwhelmed with work. I remember that holiday period I was at the office every single day except for the 25th and the 1st. It looks and feels like that right now. December has been the busiest month in at least the last 10 years.”

He said he usually lists three to four homes at the beginning of January, but this year he’s looking at 10 or 12.

Tim Hill of Re/Max All Points Realty in New Westminster, B.C., said the last four weeks have been busier than usual for this time of year. He added that last year’s fall market was rough.

“In the trenches here this year, I’m busier than I expected.” In the middle of December, we maintain a quiet atmosphere. Usually, the beginning of December slows down, but the last four weeks have been super busy. People have been making offers and getting deals done. “They’re doing it in anticipation of rate cuts next year. They’re trying to get ahead of the curve and avoid chaos. If the numbers make sense, why wait? It will be a calmer move,” he explained.

He said there’s a pause in sellers listing their homes. They’re gearing up to go to the market at the start of January.

But it’s not the same in other cities. Randy Ryalls, of Royal LePage Sterling Realty in Port Moody, B.C., said December hasn’t continued November’s trend in his market.

“But that’s not unusual. Things tend to slow down in December. People tend to turn their attention to Christmas. October was our best month, and then November continued on that trend but to a lesser degree. Our October was up about 32 percent over October 2022. November dropped off a little bit, as usual, this time of year. “December is quieter, for sure,” he said. “Sales are likely below the 10-year average.”

Ryalls thinks 2025 will be very busy. New lending rules are set to expand the market, which is vital for high-cost Vancouver. 

“Greater Vancouver has enough inventory to avoid a serious bottleneck, for now. There’s about two years of pent-up demand in the market,” said Ryalls.

Cameron Forbes, with Re/Max Realtron Realty in the GTA, said sales so far this month are higher than they were a year ago. 

“It will be a month where unit sales are up like October and November. I’m not sure it will be 40 percent, but 20 or 30 percent for sure. So the market is more active than in December 2023. December is usually a slow month. But rate decreases have led more buyers to wonder if now is the time to buy. They are asking, “Should I be back in the market? What can I afford?”

Forbes expects increases in monthly sales in the new year.

Positive outlook for 2025.

 Brayden Irwin, a broker with the Lome Irwin Team at Royal LePage in Toronto, said the market and debt costs look more positive. This affects how comfortable people are with investing in and affording a property. 

Prices have fallen from 2022 highs. Interest rates have likely peaked. So, it may be a good time to buy. People may want to get ahead of a stronger spring market with more competition. 

“That’s likely what has somewhat fueled the market in 2024.” “Many expected interest rates to fall sooner this year. So, that forecast kept getting pushed back. But over the last three rate announcements, they’ve sped up the cuts,” added Irwin. 

He said the mortgage reforms aim to make housing more accessible. They will allow more people to take part.

“If more people take part and we can’t meet the demand, prices should rise.” That is what most people are anticipating is going to happen over the next year.  So it’s a pretty positive outlook when you’re looking forward.

A December filled with overwhelming sales activity for a Calgary realtor.

Joel Semmens, of Re/Max House of Real Estate in Calgary, reported a small decline in his high-end, inner-city property sales from September to November.

In December, we experienced a surge in sales that has kept us very busy. It was almost like a bit of a delayed market. “An interest rate cut of half a point has fueled the market.” “It’s been a hectic December for sales,” he explained. “Busier than usual.”

“We’re going to have a very busy market starting in mid-February. We’ll see an uprise of people bringing their houses to the market to beat the spring and summer rush. We’re going to see more inventory coming to the market in February and March… It’s going to be a strong market.”

Renata Reid, senior VP of Sales at Sotheby’s Canada in Calgary, says December has been “phenomenal.” “Many offers are still happening, which is unusual for this time of year.”

Reid adds, “And our market was already crazy. Experts expect Calgary’s market to be very competitive in the future.”

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